The Establishment Pulls Through: Five Takeaways from the New Hampshire Primaries

The Establishment Pulls Through: Five Takeaways from the New Hampshire Primaries

New Hampshire held its 2026 midterm primary this week (September 8, 2026), and the results all point to one clear pattern: once again, it's the "establishment" candidates — the familiar, well-connected party favorites — who came out on top. Let's walk through the five biggest takeaways from the night.

1. The "safe choice" won in the Senate race on both sides

The marquee race was for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. On the Republican side, former Senator John Sununu cruised through, and on the Democratic side, sitting Congressman Chris Pappas did the same. Both are their party's most recognizable, established figures, and both won their primaries comfortably — a sign that voters largely played it safe rather than betting on an outsider.

2. The progressive challengers came close, but couldn't close the gap

On the Democratic side, democratic socialist Karishma Manzur gave Pappas a real fight, narrowing the gap in the final weeks and even pressing him on his ties to a pro-Israel lobbying group. In the end, though, party-establishment backing and organizational muscle carried Pappas through. The same story played out for Republicans — Sununu beat seven rivals, including former Senator Scott Brown, without much trouble.

3. The Trump factor is still in play, but it's complicated

President Trump endorsed Sununu, even though Sununu himself had once called Trump a "loser" back in 2024. That endorsement is widely seen as having helped Sununu in the primary. On the flip side, Pappas is already trying to tie Sununu to Trump in the general election campaign, betting that the president's declining popularity in the state will work against Republicans. How that Trump connection plays with voters in November is shaping up to be one of the big questions of this race.

4. Familiar names dominated the House primaries too

In the 1st Congressional District (the seat Pappas is vacating), Stefany Shaheen — daughter of the outgoing senator — narrowly beat retired Marine Maura Sullivan in the Democratic primary, another case of a well-known family name winning out. On the Republican side, political newcomer Anthony DiLorenzo, who had Trump's endorsement, beat three rivals without much difficulty. In the 2nd District, Republican Lily Tang Williams won the primary on her third attempt, while Democratic incumbent Maggie Goodlander easily fended off progressive challenger Paige Beauchemin.

5. The governor's race was a blowout, but November is where the real fight begins

Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte easily brushed aside two little-known challengers to secure her bid for a second term, while Democrat Cinde Warmington ran unopposed for her party's nomination. Here's the interesting wrinkle: New Hampshire tends to elect Republicans statewide but Democrats to Congress — a classic split-ticket state — and no Republican has won a Senate seat there since 2010. That's exactly why the Sununu-vs-Pappas Senate race will be watched so closely nationally: Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate, and Republicans see this race as their best shot at gaining a foothold in New England.

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Bottom line: this primary was a "safe and steady" affair — no major upsets, with the most recognizable names and the strongest party infrastructure winning out almost everywhere. But the real fight — especially for that Senate seat — is shaping up to be far more uncertain, and far more consequential for national politics, come November.